Document
• How much capacity can be provided by wind, solar, storage and demand response?, MT Wind and WY Wind are included in the NW zone
and not in the external zone.
2018 RESULTS
24
2018 System
2018 Baseline system includes 24 GW of thermal
generation, 35 GW of hydro generation, and 7 GW of
wind generation
• Sources: GENESYS database for NWPCC region and TEPPC
anchor dataset for other select NWPP BAAs
By 2023, approximately 1,800 MW of coal generation is
expected to retire
2018 Loads: 246 TWh/yr, 43 GW peak
Resource 2018 Nameplate MW
Hydro
1
34,697
Natural Gas 12,181
Coal 10,895
Wind 7,079
Nuclear 1,150
Solar 1,557
Other Hydro
2
524
Biomass 489
Geothermal 80
Demand Response
3
299
Imports
4
2,500
1
Hydro is modeled as energy budgets for each month and does not use
nameplate capacity
2
Other hydro is hydro outside NWPCC region
3
Demand Response: max 10 calls, each call max duration = 4 hours
4
Imports are zero for summer months (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep) except during
off-peak hours
NOTE: Storage assumed to be insignificant in the current, system
Hydro
44%
Natural Gas
18%
Coal
16%
Wind
10%
Nuclear
2%
Solar
2%
Other Hydro
1%
Biomass
1%
Demand
Response
2%
Imports
4%
24
Capacity Mix %
25
2018 system is in very tight
load-resource balance
A planning reserve margin of 12% is required to meet 1-in-10 reliability standard
The 2018 system does not meet 1-in-10 reliability standard (2.4 hrs., is greater than zero
When net load is less than zero storage always charges
When net load is greater than zero, storage charges from dispatchable
generation if state of charge is below 100% (or other user specified threshold)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
M
W
BTM Solar
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Storage Discharge
Storage Charge
Gross Load
Net Load After Storage
Charge
Discharge
Available Dispatchable Resources
•
Coal
•
Gas
•
Nuclear
•
Geothermal
109
Demand Response
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
M
W
BTM Solar
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Storage Discharge
Storage Charge
Gross Load
Net Load After Storage
Charge
Discharge
Available Dispatchable Resources
•
Coal
•
Gas
•
Nuclear
•
Geothermal
•
Demand Response
Demand response is treated as the dispatchable resource of
last resort if net load after storage is greater than available
dispatchable resources it is added to available resources
Each DR resource, has prescribed number of hours with a
limited quantity of available calls per year
110
Calculating Loss of Load
Any residual load that cannot be served from all available resource
is counted as lost load
Loss of load expectation (LOLE) is the number of hours of lost load
per year
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
M
W
BTM Solar
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Storage Discharge
Storage Charge
Gross Load
Net Load After Storage
Charge
Discharge
Loss of Load
Available Dispatchable Resources
•
Coal
•
Gas
•
Nuclear
•
Geothermal
•
Demand Response
Thank You!